The New World Order

Cornish (2004) p.155 forecasted that in 2050 the world's population will increase to nine million and a new global order will emerge where seven billion people will be knowledge workers. The web will be used to host the new complex global order allowing the use of new technologies to advance growth in industrialization, hence driving the global economy with technology. Increased decentralization in governance will influence different cultures to increasingly accept diversity in the global community to strengthen individual societies to positively contribute to efforts to reduce global negative tendencies.

The people in new global community may still have negative behaviors but they will be more educated and will depend more on information technology to function socially, culturally and economically. The factors influencing the emergence of the new global order include technology, educated and knowledgeable workforce and increased access to the web. Negative human behaviors like war, crime and terrorism may negatively affect global events but such effects will marginal considering positive improvements. Reference Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. World Future Society. ISBN-13: 978-0930242619

2040 Prediction of the world

Using the understanding of super trends and assuming that super trends will continue to positively affect human life and the world as a whole, Cornish (2004) p.29 predicted that in 2040 the world will continue to see new innovations and

transformations. The author indicated advances and innovations in genetics engineering will impact humans and the world even more than how computers have impacted the world today. Humans will have greater control over what type offspring they may want to have (cloning), their health and agriculture. There will be discovery of new materials which will results new products. Collaboration between humans will be increased by new innovations in communications and internet technologies. The predictions of the author are based on the assumption that the forces driving events will continue to act in the same direction. But other unforeseen factors may occur which can reverse the effects of the forces (supper trends). The forces driving the author’s predictions are the six super trends which are shaping the world’s future. Two of the super trends are the progression of technology and economic growth. Technological progression is made possible through scientific research to gain new knowledge which can help humans gain new achievements. The need for economic growth drives humans to use new technologies to continuously improve commerce. The two forces enable each other since the need for economic growth can be achieved by new innovations in technology. Reference Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. World Future Society. ISBN-13: 978-0930242619

Traffic Control

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New Agora and Structured Desigh Dialogue Porcess

Agora is a physical setting for solving complex problems. Structured design dialogue process SDDP is a facilitated section which uses geometry for languaging more persuasive and compelling facts to the majority of stakeholders by preventing Spreadthink and Groupthink to ensure quality decisions and consensus. The architecture of the SDDP consists of seven functional models; methods for building consensus, language patterns, application time phases, key role responsibilities, stages of interactive inquiry, collaborative software and facility and dialog laws. SDDP uses different methods for building consensus among groups during a complex problem. The consensus methods include the nominal group technique, interpretive structural modeling, Delphi, Options field, options profile, and trade off analysis. The language patterns help to develop the communication needed to support participants to collectively come to a decision or consensus without allowing influential individuals to influence the group (Schreibman & Christakis,2007).

To use SDDP to analyze Smart traffic control systems (STCS) there will be the need to develop a communication model to help stakeholders make informed judgment about the feasibility, functionality and usefulness of the innovation. All the seven models in SDDP architecture as mentioned above should be applied to generate dialogue among selected expert on vehicular traffic control in a facilitated section. Such a dialogue should be supported by computer aided software to stimulate and synthesizes ideas. The rounds of facilitated sections will be performed using triggering questions to inquire the knowledge of experts on traffic control concepts, social and culture pressures impact the success of the STCS, cyber related technologies on sensors and mobile network and communications (Schreibman & Christakis,2007). How does the SDP support planning for innovation and change? For SDP to support the planning process of the smart traffic control systems innovation, the following steps needs to be followed; defining the a model which describes the STCS concepts, performing inquiring using triggering questions, clarifying meanings to ensure uniform understanding, cluster ideas inductively, voting and ranking, synthesizing and interpretation of saturated ideas, lessons learned (Schreibman & Christakis,2007) Reference Schreibman, V & Christakis, A. N(2007) New Agora: New Geometry of Languaging And New Technology of Democracy: The Structured Design Dialogue Process. Retrieved from http://www.harnessingcollectivewisdom.com/pdf/newagora.pdf

Delphi and NGT

The Delphi technique is a tool for soliciting expert experience, opinion and ideas on problems, opportunities, solution or new development. Delphi method is characterized by its flexible and iterative nature which supports its implementation in varying scenarios. The participants are anonymous who provide controlled feedback to refine results the number of participants may span from 4 to 171. The Delphi process consist of the following; development the Research Question and purposeful sampling to identify participants, develop and implement question through pilot study, analyze verify and document results, verify results through feedback, define rounds of iteration feedback to refine results. The first questionnaire is open but as the iteration continues the questionnaire is focused on the previous findings (Skulmoski, Hartman & Jennifer Krahn, 2007). Similarly the nominal group technique (NGT) is used to gain consensus on issues. In NGT individuals in a group are encouraged to contribute the thoughts on issues. On the contrarily NGT produces semi qualitative data which can be used to address the issues on under study. The process involves formulating the evaluating question and groups. Individuals are asked to contribute data without discussion, clarifications of data, voting or ranking of contribution, small and large group gathering and aggregation and determination of dominating themes. The face to face nature of the grouping may influence individual’s contribution (Dobbie, Rhodes, Tysinger & Freeman, 2004). The forces affecting the choice include methodology and nature of grouping. The methodology includes qualitative or mixed methods. The nature of the group interaction preferred affect the decision to used either Delphi or NGT. I use Delphi method over NGT to explore my innovative idea. I will use the open form of questionnaire during the pilot study and narrow the focus on the results of the previous interaction (closed). References Dobbie, A., Rhodes, M., Tysinger, J.W., Freeman, J. (2004) Using a Modified Nominal Group Technique as a Curriculum Evaluation Tool. FamMed 2004;36(6):402-6. Skulmoski, G.J., Hartman, F. T and Jennifer Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi Method for Graduate Research. Journal of Information Technology Education Volume 6 Okoli, C. & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004).The Delphi method as a research tool: An example, design consideration and application. Information & management42, 15-29

Smart failure for a fast-changing world- updated

In a presentation at Ted Talks Obeng (2012) indicated that our environment changes at a faster rate than we can learn about the change. The presenter emphasized the need to address the gap between the pace of change and the pace of learning about the change. The pace of change due to creativity, innovation and risk supersedes our pace of learning. The world is changing at an accelerating speed, yet our response to change is based on our understanding of the meanings of the rules about our world



While we are busy interacting with our world, the rules may change due to creative thinking or innovative idea. We may respond to the new change based on our past knowledge. So even though we are reacting to today’s changes, our decisions, behavior and actions may be based on what we know yesterday. Our think tanks should study innovation strategy which addresses the gap between the pace of change and the pace of learning about the change. Influencing forces include Global paradigm shifts and cultural impact on knowledge acquisition (learning). Obeng, E. (2012). Smart failure for a fast-changing world. Ted Talks. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/eddie_obeng_smart_failure_for_a_fast_changing_world.html

http://www.ted.com/talks/eddie_obeng_smart_failure_for_a_fast_changing_world.html

Smart failure for a fast-changing world.

In a presentation at Ted Talks Obeng (2012) indicated that our environment changes at a faster rate than we can learn about the change. The presenter emphasized the need to address the gap between the pace of change and the pace of learning about the change. The pace of change due to creativity, innovation and risk supersedes our pace of learning.  The world is changing at an accelerating speed, yet our response to change is based on our understanding of the meanings of the rules about our world. While we are busy interacting with our world, the rules may change due to creative thinking or innovative idea. We may respond to the new change based on our past knowledge. So even though we are reacting to today’s changes, our decisions, behavior and actions may be based on what we know yesterday. Our think tanks should study innovation strategy which addresses the gap between the pace of change and the pace of learning about the change.

Obeng, E. (2012).  Smart failure for a fast-changing world. Ted Talks. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/eddie_obeng_smart_failure_for_a_fast_changing_world.html